Thursday, December 31, 2009

Report: Shadow Inventory At 1.7 Million In 3Q

A report conducted by First American CoreLogic found there was a 1.7-million-unit pending supply of residential housing inventory, an increase from 1.1 million a year earlier. Pending supply, sometimes referred to as “shadow” inventory, estimates real estate owned (REO) by banks and mortgage companies, as well as real estate that is at least 90 days delinquent. Generally, shadow inventory is not included in measures of unsold inventory. At the current sales rate, the pending supply is 3.3 months, a rise from 2.4 months a year ago, according to the report. The months’ supply measures how quickly the inventory will deplete given the current sales rate.

Source: First American CoreLogic

Loan Modifications Rise 69 percent In Third Quarter

National bank and thrift servicers implemented more than 680,000 home loan modifications and payment plans in the third quarter of 2009, a 69 percent increase compared with the second quarter, according to a report released by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS).

The percentage of current and performing mortgages declined for the sixth consecutive quarter to 87 percent of the servicing portfolio, serious delinquencies rose to 6.2 percent, and foreclosures in process surpassed 1 million mortgages, according to the report. Serious delinquencies at the end of the third quarter increased to 3.6 percent of prime mortgages, an increase of 20 percent from the previous quarter and more than double a year ago.

Other findings from the report included:

• More than half of all modified loans re-defaulted within six months of modification, with re-default defined as 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure.

• Servicers implemented nearly 274,000 trial plans under the administration’s “Home Affordable Modification Program” (HAMP) during the third quarter.

• Servicers implemented nearly twice as many home retention actions as new foreclosures.

• More than 80 percent of the loan modifications in the third quarter reduced monthly principal and interest payments.

Source: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency & Office of Thrift Supervision

Consumer Confidence Rises In December

The Consumer Confidence Index rose in December to 52.9 (1985=100) compared with 50.6 in November, the Conference Board reported yesterday. The Present Situation Index declined to 18.8 in December from 21.2 in November, and the Expectations Index increased to 75.6 from 70.3 last month, according to the report.

“Consumer confidence posted yet another moderate gain in December as expectations for the short-term future increased to the highest level in two years,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “The Present Situation Index, however, continued to lose ground and remains at a 26-year low. A more optimistic outlook for business and labor market conditions was the driving force behind the increase in the Expectations Index.”

Consumers' assessment of current conditions declined in December, with those claiming business conditions are "bad" increasing to 46.6 percent in December from 44.5 percent in November, while those claiming conditions are "good" decreased to 7 percent in December compared with 8.1 percent in November. Consumers' appraisal of the job market also was mixed, and their short-term outlook improved slightly, according to the report.

Source: The Conference Board

Case Shiller Index Improved For Ninth Consecutive Month

The annual rate of home-price decline improved in October in the 10-City and 20-City Composites tracked as one of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released yesterday. The 10-City and 20-City Composites declined 6.4 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively, in October compared with the same month last year. All 20 metro areas and both composites showed an improvement in the annual rates of decline in October compared with September.

“The turn-around in home prices seen in the spring and summer has faded, with only seven of the 20 cities seeing month-to-month gains, although all 20 continue to show improvements on a year-over-year basis,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Following a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second dip. Before jumping to conclusions, recognize that the one time that happened at the beginning of the 1980s, Fed policy saw dramatic reversals, which is very different from the stable and consistent Fed policy we have today.”

Source: S&P Indices

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Bad News For Housing: Prices Flattening

Home price gains earlier this year flattened out in October, according to a report issued Tuesday.

The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price index, covering 20 of the largest metropolitan areas in the nation, was unchanged in October, after four consecutive months of gains. The index is down 7.3% from 12 months earlier.

"The turnaround in home prices seen in the spring and summer has faded," said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's, in a statement. "Coming after a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second dip," he said.

Just seven of the 20 cities recorded gains from a month earlier.

The modest gains earlier this year were in part propped up by government initiatives.

"We've seen recent stability because of low interest rates and the impact of the first-time homebuyers tax credit," said Pat Newport, a real estate analyst with IHS Global Insight.

Prices are down from their all-time highs set in 2006 by 29% for the 20-city index.

Among the 20 cities, the worst tumble was taken by Tampa during the month. Prices fell 1.6% from September. Chicago and Atlanta recorded 1% losses.

The biggest gainers were Phoenix, up 1.3%, and San Francisco, up 1.2%.

Las Vegas sellers continued to bleed. Prices there fell just 0.1% but that marked the 38th straight monthly decline. The market in Sin City is off 55.4% from its peak. You can buy a home in Las Vegas for the same price it sold for in October of 2000.

"In most of the hardest-hit markets, price declines are moderating," said Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research.

Los Angeles recorded a rise of 0.3% and San Diego prices gained 0.4%. Miami, however, declined by 0.4%.

According to Larson, falling supplies of homes on the market are helping to stabilize conditions. "Inventories are plunging on the new-home side and going down for existing homes," he said.

Not that he's ready to break out the champagne, even with the New Year close at hand. "The market is recovering but it will be an anemic recovery," he said.

Source: CNN Money

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Foreclosure Activity Declines 8 Percent Nationwide

A report by RealtyTrac shows that foreclosure filings, including notices of default, scheduled foreclosure auctions, and bank repossessions, decreased nearly 8 percent in November compared with the previous month, but were 18 percent higher compared with a year ago.

California posted the nation’s third highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 180 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in November. Despite a 13-percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month, California continued to post the highest total of any state, with 73,995 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in November. Foreclosures in California rose 22 percent from November 2008, but were down nearly 32 percent from a July peak of 108,104. November marked the fourth consecutive month that California foreclosure activity has declined on a month-over-month basis.

California also had the top three metro foreclosure rates: Merced, with one in every 83 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in November; Stockton, with one in every 85 housing units; and Modesto, with one in every 87 housing units.

Other California metro areas with foreclosure rates in the top 10 included: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario at no. 6, with one in every 102 housing units; Bakersfield at no. 7, with one in 111; Vallejo-Fairfield at no. 9, with one in 126; and Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville at no. 10, with one in 132.

Source: RealtyTrac

Fed Leaves Key Rate Unchanged

The Federal Reserve announced it will maintain its target for the federal funds rate in the 0 percent to 0.25 percent range, and expects economic conditions to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period of time. “Information ? suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating,” the Fed said in a prepared statement.

“Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth, although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. The Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability,” the Fed said.

To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve also said it will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and nearly $175 billion of agency debt, and will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets.

Source: The Federal Reserve System

Home Values Plummet $500 Billion

Residential real estate owners suffered through another down year, but losses were much lower than in 2008.

The average home price is forecast to plummet over the next two years. But these 7 cities are predicted to post gains.

American homeowners will have lost nearly $500 billion in home value by year's end.

Still, that's a big improvement over 2008, when values fell by $3.6 trillion, according to a report released Wednesday by real estate Web site Zillow, which provides online appraisals for tens of millions of properties nationwide.

"Home values stabilized significantly during the second half of 2009, with the total dollar value of U.S. homes increasing since June," said Zillow's chief economist, Stan Humphries, in a prepared statement. "Most housing markets across the country had a good summer, spurred largely by the government's tax credits for homebuyers combined with very low mortgage rates."

The gigantic Los Angeles market suffered the largest total loss in home value, at $60.8 billion. Metro Chicago values fell $49.6 billion and New York dropped $49 billion.

Some housing markets recorded gains for the year. In the Boston metropolitan area, home values rose an average of 1.5%, lifting total market value by $23.3 billion there. Nearby Providence, R.I., gained $12.4 billion; and Denver increased $10.7 billion.

Stable or growing home values are a welcome salve for the foreclosure pox that has devastated many housing markets. Having equity enables homeowners to avoid foreclosure because they can tap the money should they hit rough financial stretches. Or, in a worse case scenario, they can still sell their homes at a profit if they can't pay their mortgages.

"Negative equity is the most important predictor of default," said Laurie Goodman, Managing Director of Amherst Securities, trader of mortgage backed securities, in testimony Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee that examined private and public responses to the mortgage crisis.

"Borrowers do not default because of negative equity alone," she said. "Generally, a borrower experiences a change in financial circumstances. If the homes has substantial negative equity, they choose to walk."

In October, 21% of homeowners were underwater, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth. That's down from 23% a year earlier.

The second-half recovery may be just a temporary reprieve for housing values, however.

"Unfortunately, we believe that demand will come under downward pressure as mortgage rates creep back up after the first quarter and that housing supply will experience upward pressure as the volume of foreclosures continues to remain high," he said.

Source: CNN Money

Obama's Standardized Short-Sale Plan Could Help Troubled Homeowners

If you're in trouble on your mortgage and can't get a loan modification, check out the Obama administration's standardized short-sale plan that's scheduled to roll out in the next several months.

The program, outlined Dec. 1 by the Treasury Department, is an attempt to streamline what has traditionally been a contentious, time-consuming process by requiring lenders and others to use nationally uniform documents, timelines and financial incentives.

A short sale involves a lender or investor agreeing to collect less than the balance owed on a mortgage debt out of the proceeds of a negotiated sale of the property. Often a short sale is the last alternative to foreclosure available to distressed homeowners and banks. Say you've lost your job and fallen behind on mortgage payments. With little or no income, you can't qualify for a modification program.

In this situation -- grim as it is -- your best move may be to see whether your lender will accept a short sale. Though the idea sounds straightforward, in practice it is not. First, the bank needs to be convinced that a short sale would yield it more money at the bottom line than a foreclosure would.

This usually means you need to bring in a real estate agent who knows the ropes and can pull together the key information needed by the bank: recent comparables on closed sales, local market trends and the likely selling price of your house.

You'll also need a buyer for the house -- one who'll pay a price acceptable to the bank and has financing to close the deal. If you happen to have a second mortgage or home equity credit line on the property, you'll also need to negotiate how much that lender will receive from the sale proceeds.

That can be tricky. In depressed real estate markets, the second-lien lender may be holding a note that's worthless in a foreclosure because plummeting property values have wiped out the collateral. Yet that same bank is in a pivotal position: It has the legal power to block the short sale by refusing to sign on to the deal.

Equally troublesome in short sales is the fact that banks, mortgage servicers and bond investors often have conflicting requirements for documentation and financial yields that can complicate and drag out the haggling for months.

Enter the Obama administration's new streamlining plan. Besides requiring lenders and servicers to use uniform documentation, pre-approved short-sale terms and accelerated turnaround times, the plan provides financial incentives for key players:

Homeowners who successfully complete a short sale under the program receive $1,500 to defray relocation costs.

Mortgage servicers can receive $1,000 per case.

Investors get $1,000.

Second-lien holders receive up to $3,000 from the sale proceeds.

Even real estate agents get something: The rules prohibit banks from forcing them to cut their commissions from the listing agreement as part of the final deal.

Sounds like a formula for encouraging a lot more short sales, right? The jury will be out on that for months, and most major lenders are still studying the fine print of the Obama program. But early reactions from big banks appear to be positive.

Dave Sunlin, a senior vice president for Bank of America Corp., said: "We're very pleased. We welcome any effort to reach standardization for all parties" involved in short sales.

Faith Schwartz, executive director of Hope Now -- a Washington-based group representing the country's largest banks, mortgage servicers, bond investors and consumer counseling organizations -- said the plan should bring "uniformity and standards" to a process usually characterized by "mayhem" among the negotiating parties.

Scott Brinkley, a senior vice president for First American Corp., a firm that provides market data for banks, said, "You're going to see a lot of cooperation" by lenders and investors.

But there could be a major pothole: The Obama plan tilts to consumers by requiring second-lien holders to drop all financial claims against short-selling borrowers beyond the $3,000 they take out of the deal.

Travis Hamel Olsen, chief operating officer of Loan Resolution Corp., a Scottsdale, Ariz., consulting firm, says the $3,000 payment won't be enough for many second-mortgage lenders. Today they frequently obtain additional short-sale compensation from sellers as the price of their participation -- in cash or through promissory notes -- far beyond $3,000.

"I'm concerned that that could limit participation" by second-lien holders, Olsen said.

Bottom line for homeowners who might benefit: Don't have wild expectations, but definitely ask your servicer whether it plans to participate and whether the forthcoming standardized plan for short sales might work for you.


Source: L.A. Times

Delinquency Rates Rise On Commercial Loans

Delinquency rates increased in the third quarter for most commercial/multifamily mortgage investor groups, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.

The delinquency rate of loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities that were more than 30 days past due rose 0.17 percentage points to 4.06 percent between the second and third quarters, according to the MBA report. The delinquency rate on multifamily loans held or insured by Fannie Mae that were delinquent 60 or more days rose 0.11 percentage points to 0.62 percent, while the more-than-90-days delinquency rate on multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac remained unchanged at 0.11 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

IRS Releases 2009 Tax Guide

As the end of the 2009 tax year approaches, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued a tax guide featuring new tax-saving opportunities, including information on:

· The making work pay credit for most workers;
· American opportunity credit for parents and college students;
· Energy credits for homeowners going green;
· First-time home buyer tax credits,
· Sales or excise tax deduction for new car buyers; and
· The expanded child tax credit and earned income tax credit for low- and moderate-income workers.


Source: IRS

California Consumer Confidence Rises In Fourth Quarter

The Anderson Center’s California Composite Index of Consumer Confidence increased in the fourth quarter of 2009 to a reading of 76.3 compared with 69.2 in the third-quarter. An index level lower than 100 reflects a higher percentage of pessimistic consumers compared with those who are optimistic.

The California Composite Index is generated based on three indices. All three components of the composite index-- consumers’ outlook on current economic conditions, consumers’ outlook on future economic conditions, and an index measuring consumers’ future spending plan--increased in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter of 2009.

The index measuring current economic conditions increased by 14.2 points to 53.8 in the fourth quarter from 39.6 in the third quarter; the index measuring future economic conditions rose from a reading of 97.7 in the third quarter to 99.7 in the fourth quarter; and the index measuring consumers’ planned spending on big-ticket items increased to 74.7 in the fourth quarter from 71.7 in the third quarter of 2009.


Source: Anderson Center for Economic Research